Bull Market Confirmed: A-Shares Ready for Second Surge

First of all, congratulations to A-shares for finally halting the decline with a small positive candlestick. Secondly, congratulations to Musk's SpaceX Starship for a successful launch. Humans on Earth may now have the possibility to enter the era of interstellar travel, and may even be able to leverage interstellar travel to initiate a new technological and industrial revolution. Since this is a scientific and technological advancement that belongs to all of humanity, there is no need to claim it as yours or mine. Technological progress is everyone's.

Investors should moderately pay attention to the aerospace sector in A-shares, as the space technology competition is one where China cannot be absent.

During the entire launch process of the Starship, the most astonishing part was the "chopsticks lifting the Starship." It's not just about putting it up, but also about bringing it back down. Not only bringing it back down, but also securely fixing it back onto the launch pad. This is a delicate task in the field of control technology.

Today, A-shares performed quite well, achieving a "chopsticks lift of A-shares" as gracefully as Musk's Starship landing, giving people a feeling of a stable landing. With a medium-sized positive candlestick and moderate volume, A-shares are entering a period of preparation for a second launch. I don't know whether A-shares will launch again immediately after cooling down, or take off after platform consolidation on the launch pad. In any case, A-shares' stable landing today has given many investors a "reassuring pill": the bull market is stable!

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It's hard to buy a bull market correction, as a bull market does not easily turn around. Every correction is an opportunity to get on board. Bear markets are long, and bull markets are also long. In the past, the problem with A-shares was that bull markets were short and bear markets were long, while the U.S. stock market had short bear markets and long bull markets. However, with the improvement of A-shares' systems and the maturation of the market, A-shares can also transition to a slow and long bull market in the future. Even if there is no immediate transition and A-shares still have short bull markets and long bear markets, this round of A-shares, even if it is a short bull market, can last for 1-2 years and will not just start and then extinguish. Therefore, grasping the big direction and holding good stocks is the simplest and best strategy before the bull market trend ends. As for the highest point, I usually shout a bit higher, but who can accurately guess the end? At the beginning of the market, it's okay for us to guess boldly, but the market is not about guessing, it's about step by step, bit by bit, policy by policy. We absolutely cannot act like Uncle, shouting that the Shanghai Composite Index will reach 14,600 points as soon as it rebounds, and then shouting that it will fall to 2,600 points as soon as the market falls. The data difference is really too large, and retail investors' hearts can't bear it. No wonder they curse!

If this round of the bull market breaks through 6,000 points and sets a new high for the Shanghai Composite Index, it is inseparable from policy support. Many policies, such as fiscal policies, do not have clear numbers, so we still need to see the specific quantitative scale of fiscal policy implementation.

In the news headlines these days, I see analysts conducting a "guessing competition." How much government debt will the Ministry of Finance issue at one time? There are guesses ranging from 3 trillion to 10 trillion. Is guessing useful? No, it's not useful.However, we can infer a policy range from analysts' speculations, which is likely not to be less than 2 trillion but also not to exceed 10 trillion. Policies sometimes work this way, with interactions between market expectations and policymakers. The market anticipates a certain amount, and the policy chooses within that expected range.

Looking at the CPI and PPI data for September, the economic figures for that month were not favorable. Some economists have calculated that after excluding food, the CPI only had a 0.1% increase, and the PPI continued to decline. In other words, apart from food, there was no price increase, and what we hope for is an increase in durable goods prices while necessities remain stable, such as home appliances, cars, and fresh vegetables, fruits, and pork not increasing in price. However, the reality did not align with our expectations. The data may not look good, but there are both positive and negative aspects. The negative aspect indicates that previous policy incentives were not very effective, while the positive aspect suggests that policies need to continue to be strengthened.

Perhaps the Ministry of Finance originally planned for 2 trillion, but seeing the pitiful state of CPI and PPI, there might be a possibility of adding a zero to the end (joking, don't take it seriously). At the cusp of the fiscal policy's release, the low data point is actually a positive sign.

In November, there is the Double 11 shopping festival, and there may also be a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. In October, due to the National Day holiday and the stock market's upward trend, consumption may significantly improve, and the data for October will be released in November. Between October and November, the Ministry of Finance will announce more policies, among which the most attention-grabbing is how much government bonds will be issued at once? Whether it's to replenish bank capital, help local governments with debt, or to invest in infrastructure and public welfare, as long as bonds are issued, it means that proactive fiscal policy is intensifying. Therefore, the future performance of A-shares will not be bad, with many points of support from policies and the macroeconomy. The only thing investors need to do is to remain patient. As for short-term hot spots, my advice remains to pay attention to previous popular sectors when the opportunity arises. For example, securities firms, financial technology, and chip companies have not yet completed their rebound.